Monsoon Forecast Discussions 2023

  Forecast Discussion for June 17th 2023 Overview: Dry southwesterly flow still dominates most of the Southwestern United States with a weak shortwave/shear zone situated to the west of Arizona. The southern extent of this system is expected to retrograde early next week allowing for the upper-level flow to briefly turn more southerly resulting in some increase in moisture, particularly in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. However, as this happens, temperatures in the middle troposphere will warm limiting instability. Early next week this feature will move eastward through the area resulting in some cloud build ups from the Junteenth holiday into Tuesday, but convection is unlikely. After the system passes, precipitable water is expected to return to significantly below normal levels for the next several days into most of Arizona.  Conditions as of 10 AM: Dewpoints across the region this morning remained fairly low allowing temperatures to drop back in the mid and lower 60's. The s