Live Discussion July 18th 11 AM https://arizona.zoom.us/j/5237305771

 Will July 18th offer a repeat performance of the 17th? Join us via Z,oom at https://arizona.zoom.us/j/5237305771 for a review of the 17th, and a look at the next several days...


Hope you enjoyed the rain today and hope to see you at the forecast discussion.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

May 16th, 2024: Chances for Elevated Convection Today

Image
  Synopsis A closed low over New Mexico will promote a chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of AZ through this evening. A dry sub cloud layer will prevent any significant rainfall accumulations, and the primary impacts will be occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds, and blowing dust.   Current Conditions At 9:45AM MST, visible satellite imagery displayed a weak, small cluster of elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Phoenix vicinity moving rapidly southeastward. Visible satellite imagery loop overlaid with GLM flashes this morning courtesy of College of Dupage. SPC 500mb analysis this morning showed a weak closed low over Central New Mexico, and a subtle shortwave on the backside of the low over AZ.  SPC 500mb analysis as of 17z this morning. The region of convection near Phoenix this morning is associated with PVA ahead of the subtle shortwave.  This mornings 12z TUS sounding measured a relatively dry and st...
Read more

August 24th: Low Grade Monsoon Pattern Through Sunday; Excessive Heat Returns This Weekend

Image
Synopsis Some moisture and instability will be in place for a chance of  scattered  afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly over the sky islands and near the International Border in southeastern AZ today. Starting tomorrow and persisting into the weekend, the 500mb anticyclone will reconsolidate over the Southwest which will lead to rising mid level heights and therefore hotter temperatures this weekend. Enough moisture and instability will remain for a chance of showers and storms across southeastern Arizona, mainly over the higher terrain and near the International Border Friday through Sunday.  Current Conditions A mid level low, associated with former tropical storm Harold, is currently situated over northeastern Arizona, and the mid level anticyclone is centered over the Southern Plains via SPC 500mb analysis this morning.  SPC 500mb analysis at 17:00z this morning. This mid level low will become an embedded shortwave on the northwest side of...
Read more

August 28th: Chance for Showers and Storms in Southeastern AZ; Extreme Heat Continues Across Lower Deserts

Image
  Synopsis Rinse and repeat type pattern today with just enough low to mid level moisture and instability for a chance of afternoon and evening storms across southeastern AZ (including Tucson). Another day of extreme heat with temps around 105 degF in Tucson with temps between 110 degF and 115 degF between Phoenix and Yuma. Current Conditions  Visible imagery already showing a few weak cells developing over the sky islands and White Mountains. Visible Imagery as of 19:00z courtesy of the College of Dupage. SPC 500mb analysis displays the mid level anticyclone centered over Southern CA and weak northerly/northeasterly mid level flow across Arizona.  SPC 500mb analysis as of 19:00z. The 12z TUS sounding still measuring marginal thermodynamics and moisture below 500mb with some subsidence in the upper levels above 500mb.  12z TUS sounding courtesy of the SPC. Today's Forecast Synoptics The only real synoptic change is the more northeasterly mid level flow...
Read more