Synopsis A closed low over New Mexico will promote a chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of AZ through this evening. A dry sub cloud layer will prevent any significant rainfall accumulations, and the primary impacts will be occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds, and blowing dust. Current Conditions At 9:45AM MST, visible satellite imagery displayed a weak, small cluster of elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Phoenix vicinity moving rapidly southeastward. Visible satellite imagery loop overlaid with GLM flashes this morning courtesy of College of Dupage. SPC 500mb analysis this morning showed a weak closed low over Central New Mexico, and a subtle shortwave on the backside of the low over AZ. SPC 500mb analysis as of 17z this morning. The region of convection near Phoenix this morning is associated with PVA ahead of the subtle shortwave. This mornings 12z TUS sounding measured a relatively dry and st...
Synopsis Significantly drier and more stable conditions today leading to minimal convection and very hot temperatures this afternoon and evening. Current Conditions High temperatures were brutal across the lower deserts yesterday with Tucson International Airport reporting a max temp of 109 degF, Phoenix Sky Harbor reporting 117 degF, and Yuma Marine Corp Air Base reporting 118 degF. All WRF runs yesterday were forecasting temps a few degrees cooler than what was observed with the raw HRRR having the most accurate high temp forecast. Significant drying has occurred across Arizona with pwats down to around an inch or less via SPC mesoanalysis this morning. SPC mesoanalysis of total precipitable water as of 17:00z this morning. The mid level anticyclone is currently centered over western AZ with primarily northeasterly winds aloft over much of Arizona. SPC 500mb analysis at 17:00z this morning. The 12z TUS sounding was depressing with CAPE around 30...
Synopsis A closed upper level low will deepen over the Desert Southwest bringing a chance for low elevation rain and mountain snow tonight through tomorrow night. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable and range from between 0.1 and 0.5 inches across the lower deserts and between 0.5 and 1.50 inches over the higher terrain. Snow levels will remain above 5000 feet with anywhere between 1 and 6 inches between 5000 and 7000 feet, and 12 to 24 inches above 7000 feet with highest amounts mainly over the mountains of Northern AZ. CAMs also suggesting some modest instability promoting a chance for a few thunderstorms across the region. Thunderstorms could produce lightning strikes, gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and even small hail. Current Conditions At 11:00AM MST, visible satellite imagery displayed an upper level low over the Northern Lower Colorado River Basin, a shallow cumulus field across SE AZ, and broken mid and high clouds across Central...
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