Synopsis A closed low over New Mexico will promote a chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of AZ through this evening. A dry sub cloud layer will prevent any significant rainfall accumulations, and the primary impacts will be occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds, and blowing dust. Current Conditions At 9:45AM MST, visible satellite imagery displayed a weak, small cluster of elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Phoenix vicinity moving rapidly southeastward. Visible satellite imagery loop overlaid with GLM flashes this morning courtesy of College of Dupage. SPC 500mb analysis this morning showed a weak closed low over Central New Mexico, and a subtle shortwave on the backside of the low over AZ. SPC 500mb analysis as of 17z this morning. The region of convection near Phoenix this morning is associated with PVA ahead of the subtle shortwave. This mornings 12z TUS sounding measured a relatively dry and st...
Synopsis Significantly drier and more stable conditions today leading to minimal convection and very hot temperatures this afternoon and evening. Current Conditions High temperatures were brutal across the lower deserts yesterday with Tucson International Airport reporting a max temp of 109 degF, Phoenix Sky Harbor reporting 117 degF, and Yuma Marine Corp Air Base reporting 118 degF. All WRF runs yesterday were forecasting temps a few degrees cooler than what was observed with the raw HRRR having the most accurate high temp forecast. Significant drying has occurred across Arizona with pwats down to around an inch or less via SPC mesoanalysis this morning. SPC mesoanalysis of total precipitable water as of 17:00z this morning. The mid level anticyclone is currently centered over western AZ with primarily northeasterly winds aloft over much of Arizona. SPC 500mb analysis at 17:00z this morning. The 12z TUS sounding was depressing with CAPE around 30...
Synopsis Arizona will remain abnormally dry and hot today and tomorrow due to the close proximity and strength of the mid level anticyclone. Excessive heat conditions will most likely continue through Monday, but a cool down is expected starting early next week. The combination of southerly flow aloft and a weak tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific will lead to an increase in moisture and thunderstorm chances next week as well. Current Conditions Current SPC 500mb and 300mb analysis this morning displays the 500mb high anchored over south-central New Mexico and an upper level jet streak over the west-central CONUS. SPC 500mb Analysis at 17:00Z this morning. SPC 300mb Analysis at 17:00Z this morning. This upper level pattern promotes extreme synoptic scale subsidence due to the close proximity of the 500mb anticyclone as well as being in the right exit region of the jet streak (upper level convergence). This is reflected quite well in the 12z TUS sounding ...
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