Synopsis A closed low over New Mexico will promote a chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of AZ through this evening. A dry sub cloud layer will prevent any significant rainfall accumulations, and the primary impacts will be occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds, and blowing dust. Current Conditions At 9:45AM MST, visible satellite imagery displayed a weak, small cluster of elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Phoenix vicinity moving rapidly southeastward. Visible satellite imagery loop overlaid with GLM flashes this morning courtesy of College of Dupage. SPC 500mb analysis this morning showed a weak closed low over Central New Mexico, and a subtle shortwave on the backside of the low over AZ. SPC 500mb analysis as of 17z this morning. The region of convection near Phoenix this morning is associated with PVA ahead of the subtle shortwave. This mornings 12z TUS sounding measured a relatively dry and st...
Overview: Moisture levels have decreased since yesterday which should keep instability in check for most of the greater Tucson area. Convection today should largely be limited to an axis of higher precipitable water situated from southwest to northeast across central Pima County. Some convection is also possible along the higher terrain to the northeast of Tucson. Moisture levels should increase tomorrow as the upper-level low over California shift westward allowing the upper-level ridge to build back into New Mexico. This should shift the 500 hPa flow over southeastern Arizona from southwesterly to southeasterly, allowing for some moisture advection into the region from Mexico. Additionally, upper-level disturbances embedded in the southeasterly flow could enhance convective coverage, although the timing of these disturbances relative to peak heating times may be an issue. Today: The sounding from Tucson is unavailable this morning so I will be referencing the sounding from...
Synopsis Significantly drier and more stable conditions today leading to minimal convection and very hot temperatures this afternoon and evening. Current Conditions High temperatures were brutal across the lower deserts yesterday with Tucson International Airport reporting a max temp of 109 degF, Phoenix Sky Harbor reporting 117 degF, and Yuma Marine Corp Air Base reporting 118 degF. All WRF runs yesterday were forecasting temps a few degrees cooler than what was observed with the raw HRRR having the most accurate high temp forecast. Significant drying has occurred across Arizona with pwats down to around an inch or less via SPC mesoanalysis this morning. SPC mesoanalysis of total precipitable water as of 17:00z this morning. The mid level anticyclone is currently centered over western AZ with primarily northeasterly winds aloft over much of Arizona. SPC 500mb analysis at 17:00z this morning. The 12z TUS sounding was depressing with CAPE around 30...
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