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May 16th, 2024: Chances for Elevated Convection Today

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  Synopsis A closed low over New Mexico will promote a chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of AZ through this evening. A dry sub cloud layer will prevent any significant rainfall accumulations, and the primary impacts will be occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds, and blowing dust.   Current Conditions At 9:45AM MST, visible satellite imagery displayed a weak, small cluster of elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Phoenix vicinity moving rapidly southeastward. Visible satellite imagery loop overlaid with GLM flashes this morning courtesy of College of Dupage. SPC 500mb analysis this morning showed a weak closed low over Central New Mexico, and a subtle shortwave on the backside of the low over AZ.  SPC 500mb analysis as of 17z this morning. The region of convection near Phoenix this morning is associated with PVA ahead of the subtle shortwave.  This mornings 12z TUS sounding measured a relatively dry and stable environment with 0.60 in
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April 4th, 2024: Windy, Cold, and Light Precipitation Tomorrow

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Synopsis A deep mid latitude trough will impact AZ beginning tomorrow and into early Saturday morning providing the region with gusty winds, cold temperatures, and a chance for precipitation. This system will be relatively moisture starved so mainly light precipitation is expected with the primary focus being strong winds and anomalously cold temperatures especially for this time of year. The majority of precipitation will occur over the higher terrain, but some very light rainfall accumulations are possible across the valleys. Rainfall amounts will range from a trace to 0.10 inch in the valleys and between 0.10 and 0.50 inch of SWE over the higher terrain favoring southwestern facing slopes of the mountains. Snow levels will remain above 4000 feet with between a trace to 6 inches expected and locally higher amounts possible over the highest peaks of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Current Conditions At 10:54AM MST, visible satellite imagery displayed a mid latitude cyclone along
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March 24th, 2024: Windy, Cold, and Showery Sunday

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  Synopsis The primary vort max and associated cold front has moved east into New Mexico this morning leaving behind a cold and marginally unstable airmass across AZ. Enough instability will remain in place through this evening for scattered convective showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two across the state. Additional rainfall and snowfall amounts will be highly variable and dependent on trajectory of showers. Expect anywhere between a trace to 0.25 inch of rainfall in the valleys with between 0.10 and 0.50 inches over the higher terrain. Snow levels will remain above 5000 feet with anywhere between a dusting to 6 inches of additional snowfall in the mountains. Current Conditions   Visible satellite imagery and GLM data indicating scattered convective showers and isolated thunderstorms across AZ this morning. GOES-16 visible satellite imagery overlaid with GLM flashes at 9:00AM MST courtesy of College of Dupage. The vort max which provided AZ with moderate to heavy showers and is
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March 23rd, 2024: Cold, Wet, and Windy Tonight through Tomorrow Morning

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Synopsis A vort max within a broad upper level trough  will impact AZ later this evening into tomorrow morning bringing breezy west winds, low elevation rain, and high elevation snow. CAMs suggest some weak instability tonight so a few thunderstorms are possible as well. Rainfall amounts will be relatively light with only a few hundredths of an inch to 0.25 inch across lower elevations and between 0.25 inch and 1 inch over the higher terrain with the highest amounts along the southwestern/western facing slopes of the mountains through tomorrow morning. Snow levels will remain above 5000 feet, so expect anywhere between a trace to 6 inches between 5000 and 7000 feet and between 6 and 12 inches above 7000 feet with highest amounts expected over the tallest peaks of the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim. Current Conditions At 11:50AM MST, visible satellite imagery displayed a stream of mid and high clouds over AZ and a band of showers moving into Southern California. GOES-16 visible satell
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March 14th, 2024: Chances for Valley Rain, Mountain Snow, and Thunderstorms Tonight and Tomorrow

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  Synopsis A closed upper level low will deepen over the Desert Southwest bringing a chance for low elevation rain and mountain snow tonight through tomorrow night. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable and range from between 0.1 and 0.5 inches across the lower deserts and between 0.5 and 1.50 inches over the higher terrain. Snow levels will remain above 5000 feet with anywhere between 1 and 6 inches between 5000 and 7000 feet, and 12 to 24 inches above 7000 feet with highest amounts mainly over the mountains of Northern AZ.  CAMs also suggesting some modest instability promoting a chance for a few thunderstorms across the region. Thunderstorms could produce lightning strikes, gusty winds, locally   heavy rainfall, and even small hail.   Current Conditions  At 11:00AM MST, visible satellite imagery displayed an upper level low over the Northern Lower Colorado River Basin, a shallow cumulus field across SE AZ, and broken mid and high clouds across Central and Northern AZ. Visible sat
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